DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/17 11:06
Grains Mixed at Midday
Trade is mostly lower across the board at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is higher this morning with the Dow up 35 points. The
interest rate products are mostly lower. The dollar index is 35 higher.
Energies are mixed with crude down $0.20. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious
metals are lower with gold up $18.00.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed in quiet trade at midday with harvest pressure
and weaker soybean trade weighing on the market, with some light two-sided
action. Ethanol margins are stable with the seasonal usage expected to work
lower but with blender margins improving with the recent firmer action in the
energy complex. The condition report had good to excellent 1 percentage point
higher to 65% good to excellent. The weekly crop progress report had maturity
at 90%, 4 percentage points behind average with harvest at 28%, 19 percentage
points behind average with open weather this week likely allowing for much
better progress. Basis should see harvest pressure, while carry remains at wide
levels. On the December chart support is at the 20-day at $3.50 which we are
testing at midday with the contract low at $3.42 below that, with resistance
the 50-day at $3.57.
Soybean trade is 3 to 6 cents lower at midday with pressure from expanding
harvest and profit taking after the recent rally. Meal is $2 to $3 lower and
oil is 5 to 15 points higher. NOPA crush came in at 136.42 million bushels,
with oil stocks just below expectations at 1.302 billion pounds. South American
weather forecasts remains mixed with drier weather expected for Argentina to
allow planting to progress while northern Brazil remains excessively dry for
the early part of the growing season with the second week pattern looking to
invert that which would allow for better progress. Crop conditions had good to
excellent 1 percentage point higher at 62% good to excellent. The weekly crop
progress had 94% dropping leaves, 1 percentage point ahead of average, and 49%
harvested, 11 percentage pointS behind average, and export inspections were
strong at 1.77 million metric tons. Trade will be watching to see if activity
continues to show up on the daily export reporting system with the rise in
prices. On the November chart, trade is above all the major moving averages,
with the 200-day at $9.75 first support, with resistance the recent high at
Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade continuing to mark time
near the lower end of the fall range, with pressure spilling over from the row
crops, helping to blunt some early buying support. The dollar is solidly firmer
this morning as it heads towards the recent highs. U.S. exports have been
slowed lately as Black Sea origin continue to dominate. Australia will see more
focus coming forward as well as the growing season progresses with some flood
damage concerns in South America. The weekly crop progress showed 60% planted,
11 percentage points behind normal, and 37% emerged, 6 percentage points
behind. On the December Kansas City support is the 10-day at $4.32 with
resistance at the 20-day at $4.40.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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