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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/22 11:41

   Mixed Trade in Grains at Midday

   Wheat is mixed with corn and beans lightly lower in slow midday trade.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 45 points. 
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 8 points lower. 
Energies are lower with crude down $0.40. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle 
sharply higher and hogs lightly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 
$1.  

   CORN

   Corn trade is 2 cents lower in quiet midday trade, but we are at fresh 
two-month lows here at midday so additional long liquidation is possible. The 
weekly EIA report had stocks 0.75% lower with production 0.1% lower with 0.58% 
reduction in gas demand. Ethanol futures are a penny higher so with corn lower 
this is a positive move in board margins at midday. This may limit downside in 
corn along with the firm cattle trade. Fear of losing corn acres should also 
continue to limit downside, albeit it is not stopping us from moving lower. On 
the May chart support nearby support is at the $3.52 late December low. 
Resistance is the 10-day at $3.63 1/2.  

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower at midday is slow trade with both nearby 
May and new crop November contracts trading just $10 but not accelerating to 
the downside. Meal is $1 lower and May soybean oil is down 35 points. Limited 
weather issues to talk about and with crush margins needing some improvement 
there is insufficient supportive news to take beans higher here. The strength 
in the Real has supported US export competitiveness which should limit near 
term downside despite rising production estimates from Brazil with some private 
sources up to 111 million metric tons. On the May soybean chart support is at 
the $9.92 low printed on last week, resistance is at the 10-day and lowest 
major moving average at $10.02. Our low this morning has been within 2 cents of 
support; the trade expects sizeable sell stops below the $9.92 4-month low and 
below the $9.90 level. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is mixed at midday in slow trade, the daily ranges have only 
been 5-7 cents on most contracts. Minneapolis is 2 cents higher here and the 
winter wheat contracts 2 cents lower. New lows for the move, and new 2-month 
lower were made on Kansas City trade but follow-through selling has been 
limited here as of midday. The recent warmer weather has stressed the crop on 
the plains but concerns are limited at the moment with the rains expected to 
limit damage. The dollar remains below the 100 mark on the index which appears 
to be limiting downside. The protein spreads are again favoring Minneapolis; 
Minneapolis has gained over 30 cents on Kansas City this month with the spread 
getting near the most inverse over Kansas City in a month but still around 20 
cents from the high in the spread reached approximately 3 months ago. On the 
May Kansas City contract support is the daily low at $4.33 1/2, with resistance 
the 100-day at $4.44.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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