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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/24 11:11

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybeans lead at midday, while corn and wheat surrender early gains.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow 195 points higher. The 
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 89 points lower. Energies 
are lower with crude down $0.45. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs higher. 
Precious metals are mixed with gold down 12.70. 


   Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade waiting for the planting 
progress report this afternoon along with mixed spillover from soybeans and 
wheat. The weather forecast is expected to bring heavy rains into the middle of 
the belt this week, but better progress may have been scored late last week, 
especially in the I states. Ethanol margins should open the week fairly steady. 
The weekly export inspections were strong at 1.453 million metric tons. The 
weekly progress report is expected to show planting progress 4% to 6% behind 
normal with good early week progress possible catching us up more. On the May 
chart support is at the $3.54 3-month low with resistance at the $3.62 20 and 
200-day moving averages. 


   Soybean trade is 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with the seasonal recovery 
still trying to build more into the beginning of the week. Meal is $3.50 to 
$4.50 higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher. South America harvest 
pressure should be pretty well wrapped up. Trade may be looking to discourage 
US soybean acreage via lower prices with November futures hanging around $9.50; 
the area of our six-month lows, but it has been gaining vs. corn the past few 
days. Basis should remain steady this week seasonally. The weekly export 
inspections were ok at 634,877 metric tons. Planting progress for soybeans may 
be issued this week, but it will be a small amount in any event. May soybean 
chart support is the 10-day moving average at $9.49; with the multi-month low 
at $9.29 below that, with resistance the 20-day at $9.51 which were above at 
midday and the 50-day at 10.04 way above that.


   Wheat trade is 1 to 6 cents lower at midday after early strength gave way 
during the day session yet again despite the weaker dollar and growing world 
weather concerns. Wheat open interest hit a new record with the liquidation 
last week, which should induce more short covering if positive finishes can be 
mounted. Parts of Kansas got fairly cold over the weekend but damage should be 
limited with heavy rains for much of the belt this week. The Dakotas look wet 
enough to keep planting slow for now, but progress should be able to catch up 
in the next week in North Dakota. The European crop looks to struggle with 
dryness this week along with some concerns building in Russia. The weekly 
export inspections were good at 612,536 metric tons. The condition report is 
expected to improve slightly this afternoon with progress remaining ahead of 
normal, while spring wheat planting will likely remain behind normal, but 
should have a narrower gap this week. The dollar index is testing the 99 area 
after the French election. On the May Kansas City contract support is at the 
new low at $3.98 3/4 with resistance at the $4.19 20-day moving average. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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