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DTN Midday Grain Comments     02/23 11:22

   Corn, Beans Lower at Midday

   Trade is mostly lower at midday led by soybeans.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures up 25 points. 
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 35 points lower. 
Energies are higher with crude up 0.70. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle 
leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 18.10.  


   Corn trade is 4 cents lower at midday with soybean weakness helping to drag 
trade lower. The weekly ethanol production report showed production down 21,000 
barrels per day, stocks were 169,000 barrels higher, with gasoline demand 
showing growth with the warm weather. Double crop planting in Brazil will 
continue to expand in coming days. Basis remains soft, but better bids have 
surfaced in some areas into March. The USDA outlook forum this week will shine 
more light on expected 2017 acre figures with some information starting to come 
out today with the baseline corn acre guess at 90 million acres Support is at 
the $3.68 20-day and $3.66 200-day which we are tested yesterday, with 
resistance now at the $3.72 10-day followed by the $3.80 high. 


   Soybean trade is 6 to 9 cents lower at midday with soybeans continuing to 
drift lower as South American harvest progress continues in Brazil, and 
Argentina continuing to mature. Meal is $2 to $3 lower and oil is 30 to 40 
points lower. Crop size expectations remain strong for Brazil with harvest 
gaining speed, with more eyes turning to logistics and currency issues to see 
what kind of pace they can sustain. The slide in oil values has hurt crush 
margins, which has helped to keep basis soft. The outlook forum pegged bean 
acres at 88 million reflecting the expected increase in acres. On the March 
soybean chart support is now at the $10.18 200-day which we are testing this 
morning and then $10.00 and resistance at the 50-day at $10.34.


   Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with Minneapolis and Kansas City 
trade leading overnight. The weaker dollar should add support, with the softer 
row crop trade limiting upside this morning. The winter wheat should continue 
to gain vs. the spring wheat with protein issues moving to the back burner for 
now. The warm stretch will continue to raise concerns about breaking dormancy. 
Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas caught some rains over the weekend, but western 
Kansas remains drier. On the March Kansas City contract support is at the $4.50 
200-day. Resistance is at the seven-month high at $4.74 1/2, which was printed 
on Thursday with the 10-day at $4.59 just above the market. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at 
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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