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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/12 10:48

   Grains Moving Lower Midday Monday

   Corn is 7 to 8 cents lower, soybeans is 19 to 21 cents lower and wheat is 3 
to 10 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   MARKET SUMMARY:

   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 65 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 0.07 lower. Interest rate products are mostly lower. Energies are 
firmer with crude up $0.65. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals 
are weaker with gold off $10.00.

   CORN:

   Corn trade is 7 to 8 cents lower with new crop 2 to 3 cents lower with 
weaker spread action and little fresh news for corn as spillover from soybeans 
weighs on the market. Ethanol margins should remain range-bound with driving 
demand likely to remain near normal levels short term and corn values limiting 
upside. Corn basis should remain sideways short term with ethanol and export 
movement needing to maintain the recent improvements in pace. Double-crop 
progress in Brazil looks to have mixed weather for most, with early growth 
seeming to be OK for now. Weekly export inspections were a bit soft at 1.596 
million metric tons, and will likely be revised higher, and weekly crop 
progress should show planting in line with the five-year average while cooler 
weather will slow progress this week. On the May contract, chart resistance is 
the contract high at $5.95, with the Upper Bollinger band at $5.76 3/4 now just 
above the market, then the 20-day at $5.55 as support.

   SOYBEANS:

   Soybeans are 19 to 21 cents lower at midday with pressure from harvest 
progress in South America along with their relaxation of biodiesel blending 
rates, and little fresh bullish news otherwise, even as China stepped in for 
132,000 metric tons of new crop and Bangladesh securing 110,000 metric tons 
split between old and new crop. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 0.80 
cent to 0.90 cent lower. South America is expected to continue harvest progress 
in Brazil with little overall weather change short term and Argentina looking 
stable short term. Weekly export inspections continue to trend lower seasonally 
at 327,799 metric tons. The May soybean chart has resistance the 20-day at 
$14.12, with support the lower Bollinger band at $13.81, which we are testing 
at midday.

   WHEAT:

   Wheat trade is 3 to 10 cents lower at midday with trade fading back from 
resistance levels and little fresh bullish news after the solid close to last 
week and KC taking the lead Monday morning. The downtrend in the dollar should 
keep encouraging short covering while wheat looks more competitive in feed 
rations. Weather in the Plains has some cold in it, but not enough to get the 
market excited right now with weekly crop progress expected to remain in line 
with the five-year average, and conditions steady. Weekly export inspections 
were a little soft at 458,432 metric tons. KC has narrowed to a 48-cent 
discount to Chicago with Minneapolis 13 cents above Chicago. KC May on the 
chart has support at the 20-day at $5.78 that we moved above last week, with 
$6.00 the next level of resistance.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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